Managerial Decision Making Process

Questions: Describe a specific decision making scenario, one general scenario (applied to each concept), or anything in between. For each concept, explain (1) How bias is recognised or identified in the scenario, (2) Methods by which bias may be measured or evaluated in the scenario, (3) Strategies to address, ameliorate or overcome bias in the scenario, (4) How this process may improve decision outcomes in the scenario. Answers: Introduction During 2003, a renowned author was involved in a project where exception reports were developed. It was indulged to provide the performance management information for a government department. Information system and the data analysis software play an significant position in the definition of exceptions and the development of the report (Dale, 2015). Exception report in an EIS could make an undue attention for the outliers. The bias is also refereed as regression effect. It does not acknowledge the law o the regression. An investigation was undertaken so see if the bias of regression is present on the project. The wider broad decision-making implications were associated for the other biases which consequences from the use of exception report. The project on the performance analysis was done for the government project with includes 500 government offices and 10,000 people involved (Dale, 2015). The sources of information were collected through the team meetings and the informal discussions among members. It includes two managers who are also the decision makes. Three different databases were available to analyze the performance and the exception report. The first database consists of the inspection report. However, the second dataset consists of the office productivity information, which was available for the third party player of the offices. The third set consists of the information to measure the performance of the office, which includes the best and the worst (Dale, 2015). The identification of bias The comparison of the three databases lists the beat and the worst offices. The analysis shows that in some cases some offices, which appears as worst from the inspection, report changes to best in the third party dataset. It became the major concern for the team members involved with it. However, it is possible for the people to gather the knowledge on the offices to explain the differences. It is possible for the office to perform well in a particular database and bad on the other. But, the threat which arises because of it is the acceptance of good or bad for any offices in its true reflection of reality. Again, it also gives arise of the danger for analyze the data without the taking of the cognizance of the office and its limitations (Hilbert, 2012). The given study gives a view that misconception of regression can be regarded as the bias associated with it. It implies that outliers are not the representatives of the dataset while people might assume them to be. The identification of the possible on the performance management is need t investigated with reference to the identified bias. It is associated with regression bias with the heuristics of representatives. The biases, which are associated with the representatives, imply the incorrect use or the explanation of the numerical data. A representativeness bias can occur if the report can be regard as more representatives then they actually showed (Bouyssou et al., 2013). Again the case study gives the fact that the report is biased towards the data which could be easily available. On the other hand in this case the data is unrepresentative so the bias of the availability is another form of the bias of the representatives (Scott Davis, 2015). Methods of measurement of bias The case represents the unrepresentative bias, the evaluation for the same could be made through the selection bias. The selection bias here covers the Undercoverage of the representative. It Represents that some members are inadequately represent n the sample. Undercoverage becomes the main problem in regards to convenience sample. Again the case study further explains that the poor measure process leads to the bias. It shows the fact that the difference of the report that might be because of the questions that were asked. It could also lead to crate the scenario because of the respondent (Johnson et al., 2013) Respondent Bias is the result of the bias which arises in the measurement problem. I the case study it is observed that the wording of the question lead to unduly factor on own response on another. The two survey conducted enable the respondent to express dissatisfaction. It results in the expression of biasness related with the survey question against the dissatisfying response. Again response bias shows that the case also makes presence of social desirability. The respondent would be there who would like to present themselves in front of favorable lights. So, they could easily develop into unsavory attitudes or the illegal activities. The response of those respondent could be biased towards socially desirable (Dale, 2015). The survey produces the sample, which is statistic, which is use to the estimation of parameter for population. Now the case study represented same sample with repeated survey which enabled to give a different sample statistic against each imitation. It shows that the statistic is bias. The variability of the statistic from different sample enables to produce sampling error. Enhancement of the sample size does not affect the survey bias. A large sample size as consisted here does not correct the problems related with methodologies (Johnson et al., 2013). Strategies to overcome from the bias The scenario represents the fact that the reduction of biases and produce high quality does not improve the rationality of the decision making process. Analysts need to acknowledge the existence of the decision-making mode. Like organizational and the political mode are opposed with the model of idealized rationality. Analyst need to communicate the result in more clear way. They need to reduce the misinterpretation and the false impression attached with it. It needs to take proper strategy, as people do not value the limitations of the data analysis (Huber et al., 2012). The case study also shows two managers who are also the decision takes. They were insufficient to involve with any comprehensive decision at that time. The managers responsibility is to take significant strategic plans for the scenario. Now the managers need to take support from the team members. Here we see neither the mangers nor the team members did take any initiatives for it. Risk management field need to become mandatory so to curb the challenges as well as the assumption from the scenario (Bouyssou et al., 2013). Figure showing Decision bias and its Distortion Source: (Johnson et al., 2013) Figure shows the importance of minimize the impact of the bias. The adoption need to contribute towards the risk management scenario. To address the biases mentioned in the above diagram the challenge must consist of decision-making process. Heuristics are the rules of the thumb, which is used to simplify the process of decision-making. The heuristics result to initiate god decisions. It initiates the loss in the quality decisions with outweigh of save time. Evaluation Metrics need to use in this regards. It is one the most effective way as it is easier to access the relevant information. It is also faster and the most effective way for the identification of the problem. It can be assessed easily with tools and models. It enables to initiate larger set of the alternatives. The metric also act efficiently in the reduction of the decisions cost. It also reduces the decision time in the detailed analysis. It enables to produce better quality of feedback (Johnson et al., 2013). Improvement in the outcomes of decision The policy would enable to improve the condition of the outcomes of the decisions. The process would enable to increase the productivity in organization. Heuristic enable to promote a convenient way for the solution solving as imperfect information. The understanding of the efficient and the predictable removal of bias would initiate to the field of judgment and the decision making process. The decisions range from a small to the important one. Effective decisions would enable to become the greatest determinant of the success of the business. The decision- makers countenance the uncertainties and contain the unfinished knowledge. The idea of bounded rationality in the decision-making process curb the limitations attached with the case study. It would enable them to use the judgmental heuristics when the uncertainty, complexity and the constraint of time would prohibit from the best in decision-making (Huber et al., 2012). Conclusion The analysis of the case study showed the ability for the introduction of the new bias and its reinforcement. The managers need to be more active to take decisions in such situation. The bias of regression contributes with the analysis and the report of the data. Other than regression it has been identified in the case study like bias on the representativeness. It makes the impact of the success in the decision making process in the department more concerned. The discussion further made emphasis on the real-life context for the development of the strategies on decision making. Some of the challenges, which are discussed, are the data error and the data availability. The challenges are many. It overshadows the effect of bias related with the probability theory. The scenario sets example on the examination of the bias in real situations rather than in the laboratories. Reference list: Huber, G. A., Hill, S. J., Lenz, G. S. (2012). Sources of bias in retrospective decision making: Experimental evidence on voters limitations in controlling incumbents.American Political Science Review,106(04), 720-741. Johnson, D. D., Blumstein, D. T., Fowler, J. H., Haselton, M. G. (2013). The evolution of error: Error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases.Trends in ecology evolution,28(8), 474-481. Marwala, T. (2013). Semi-bounded Rationality: A model for decision making.arXiv preprint arXiv:1305.6037. Scott, W. R., Davis, G. F. (2015).Organizations and organizing: Rational, natural and open systems perspectives. Routledge.